US Visa Rules: Will New Restrictions Cause a Mass Exodus of Skilled Workers to Europe and Asia?

,000 fee for new H-1Bs and proposed increases to wage thresholds – have made the system more restrictive and uncertain. As a result, highly educated, experienced professionals are looking elsewhere, weighing opportunities in Europe and Asia against this new erosion of the “American dream” – a trend experts warn could lead to a US “brain drain”. Tech companies like Amazon and Google are among the largest users of the H-1B programme, which allows workers to stay for an initial period of up to three years, with a maximum of six years. Professionals in “speciality occupations” are required to have a bachelor’s degree or higher, along with specialised knowledge in their field. A cornerstone of skilled US immigration for over three decades, the visa is obtained through a lottery system generally capped at 85,000 annually, including 20,000 for advanced degree holders. In 2024, over 70 per cent of H-1B visa holders were Indian nationals, while over 11 per cent were Chinese, making them the two largest categories. Under last month’s proposed changes, which involve a complicated formula with various job categories and geographic locations, employers would have to pay higher wages to a foreign worker than to their US counterpart, a measure seen as a way to encourage local hiring. For example, pay requirements for an entry-level foreign family doctor in New York City will jump from US$132,517 to US$187,512. If implemented, these new rules would also affect several other visa classes. This marks the latest challenge for the H-1B programme, which has become increasingly hard to get and renew since Trump returned to office. Last year, the administration introduced a US$100,000 fee for companies hiring new H-1B workers. It also weighted the 2026 lottery to prioritise higher-skilled roles rather than a straight lottery, making selection harder for early-career employees. The changes are already being felt by those trying to navigate the cumbersome system. Haina Ha, who works in marketing, first came to the US from China in 2015 for a student exchange, then returned to graduate school on a student visa and entered the workforce during the pandemic. The H-1B is a popular pathway for those who have studied in the US. Originally from China’s Inner Mongolia, the 32-year-old won the H-1B lottery sooner than most, something she attributes to fewer entrants during Covid. Though already on an H-1B, Ha has been indirectly affected by the US$100,000 fee while looking for work after being laid off. While a standard H-1B transfer for an individual already in the US does not technically trigger the fee, it has created an increasingly hostile hiring environment because of concerns about the visa process. H-1B visa holders have 60 days to find new work, change status or leave the country. “The first thing I’ve noticed is that the jobs available in the market to sponsor visas are definitely fewer,” she said, explaining that many companies now specify that they do not sponsor visas on the job advertisement. Some of Ha’s friends have gone to Europe and Asia to work or study after struggling in the US to get a job. “They already speak English, so they can just go to the UK or some other countries, and they can still use their English skills without learning another language. Even Singapore, Hong Kong and places like that,” she said. In addition to these hurdles, visa holders face hugely prolonged wait times to get an appointment. Following a 2025 policy shift, Third Country National (TCN) processing was largely eliminated, forcing applicants to renew in their home countries rather than a more convenient third location, such as the United Kingdom or Canada. Chinese nationals – whose visa stamps are frequently limited to a 12-month validity for reciprocity reasons – will have to travel to China for a new stamp, often facing long wait times for appointments there as well. Hayley, a finance worker from Canada who declined to give her family name due to ongoing visa concerns, has been in the US for several years on a Treaty-Nafta visa, which is specifically for Canadian and Mexican nationals. After four years of trying, she won the H-1B lottery this year, and her company is going ahead with the application. “I’m going to have to travel this summer, and if I do that, it might trigger that US$100,000 fee,” she said, explaining she needed to leave the country to attend her brother’s wedding in Canada. In the US, she said the application was considered a “change of status” as she was already there legally on another visa class; therefore, she was hoping it would not trigger the fee. But travelling internationally while an H-1B petition is pending can cause a “change of status” to revert to a “new entry” application. “It’s just added a lot of stress to people I know who are trying to do this process,” she said. “I know others are in similar situations where they’re like, ‘I won’t be able to do it if I have to pay that fee,’ so they’re similar to me.” Compared to Canada, Hayley said, the US still provided more promising job opportunities and higher wages in certain fields. But she cannot imagine the recent visa changes are not stressing out visa holders, particularly in light of the aggressive current US foreign policy. “Honestly, I’m considering other options – going back to Canada or going to Europe – partially due to my general sentiment towards the US right now. But the visa situation doesn’t help, because it’s feeling even less attainable now,” she said. Can US workers cover the shortfall? Zeke Hernandez, Wharton School professor and author of The Truth About Immigration, said the Trump administration had made the “incorrect assumption” that there were enough US workers available, sitting on the sidelines: “That’s simply not the case.” “Firms resort to H-1B [and other] visas only after trying to hire workers who are citizens or have work permits already. It’s a hassle to deal with the H-1B programme,” he said. The changes could also cause the US to lose its competitive edge, given that over a third of the US STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) workforce was foreign-born, Hernandez added. As the US tightens restrictions, competitors are moving in, with China last year unveiling a new “K visa” programme designed to attract young foreign STEM talent. “In the field of AI alone, over half of workers with graduate degrees are foreign-born – and that’s the only sector propping up the economy right now. So this will very likely be an American brain drain if it’s not stopped by the courts or by administrations with more common sense,” he said. Small employers, hospitals and non-profits have been hit hard, facing both staffing shortages and an inability to absorb the fee. “Universities, hospitals, and other not-for-profit organisations were never subject to the 85,000 visa cap but are subject to the US$100,000 fee, so you now have a new class of organisations subject to H-1B restrictions that never faced any,” Hernandez said. Large tech firms, by contrast, have been less affected, often hiring international students and workers on other visas, allowing them to switch status without triggering the fee. The financial impact of these decisions was laid bare in the Global Nurse Force versus Trump lawsuit, in which healthcare providers, schools, religious organisations, labour unions and individual workers challenged the fee. As of mid-February, the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) received evidence of 85 settled payments since the fee was imposed in September, resulting in US$8.5 million in revenue, according to a USCIS court filing. Compared with the same period the year before, the filing revealed a US$81.5 million shortfall in fees collected for H-1B petitions for workers not subject to the annual cap. The burden is falling on organisations that often hire specialised talent from abroad, such as hospitals and universities. Faced with these new fees, these institutions have stopped applying, causing non-cap overseas filings to plummet by 87 per cent. US immigration lawyer Tahmina Watson said these policies risked exporting jobs rather than protecting them. She is already seeing high-skilled individuals looking for alternatives, with Canada a popular destination. Many of Watson’s clients, particularly those in advanced scientific research, rely on master’s and PhD graduates who require H-1B sponsorship. “Start-ups and small businesses hire foreign talent not out of preference, but out of necessity,” given a dearth of US skills, she said. “The United States has long been a magnet for global talent. Policies like these may fundamentally alter that reality.” Businesses may hire overseas to cut costs While H-1B opponents claim these restrictions encourage companies to prioritise Americans or pay foreign nationals higher salaries, experts believe it could encourage businesses to hire overseas to control costs. “We already have good research showing that firms do send jobs outside the US rather than hiring more US workers,” Hernandez said. “US-based multinational firms hire those workers in China, India or Canada primarily. “However, that work also shows that only 0.4 workers are hired abroad for every one worker, which firms miss out on due to the lottery. So there’s a ‘deadweight loss’ because it’s not a one-for-one replacement of jobs overseas.” This means firms aren’t getting what they want, and the US economy is less productive. “Other countries gain, but it’s not a perfect pass-through.” Julia Gelatt from the Migration Policy Institute warned that these hurdles could undercut US competitiveness, noting that while companies might still hire foreign talent remotely, the domestic benefits of these workers would vanish. “High-skilled immigrants are also net fiscal contributors – they pay more in taxes than they consume in public services. That’s particularly important given the US’ ageing population,” Gelatt added. “Reducing high-skilled immigration can negatively affect both innovation and long-term economic growth.” The traditional route Yue once took – moving from student to professional – could become ancient history. Under the new, weighted lottery, early-career workers are disadvantaged, making it increasingly difficult for students from India and China to remain in America. Even for those who are picked in the H-1B lottery process, the win is “no longer a straightforward moment of celebration”, Yue explained. There’s a mix of worry, adaptation and anxiety in the H-1B community right now, she added, with these developments adding more restrictions, prompting a growing exodus to Europe and Asia. Among the Chinese community, the pull of American career growth, cultural experiences and higher income persisted, “but compared to before, there’s also more realism”, Yue said. “People are more aware of the challenges,” she added. “The bigger cost isn’t just financial. It is the uncertainty. You’re building a life in a system where your ability to stay is never fully guaranteed.”